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Monday, November 16, 2009

On Palin Watch: Pre- and Post-"Rogue"

Sarah Palin's book release this week will no doubt be considered a pivotal moment in her political career. Just as there was Palin pre- and post-VP pick, there will be Palin pre- and post-"Going Rogue."

From pre- to post-VP pick, Palin went from unknown to fairly well-liked almost overnight. After the election, the unfavorables eclipsed the favorables. Nearly one year and one resignation later, 50% of Americans were less than keen on Palin. As our Jeffrey M. Jones noted in our October story on Palin's favorability rating: "Palin's ratings have not recovered, and her current 40% favorable rating is the lowest for her since she became widely known after last year's Republican convention." Here's Palin's favorability trend, and you can see the complete data and precise survey dates here.

In our most recent read of 2012 presidential candidate preferences, Palin garners less support from Republicans than Mike Huckabee and ties Mitt Romney. Nearly two-thirds of all Americans (63%) say they currently would not consider voting for her for president and nearly the same percentage (62%) say she is not qualified to be president.

There is little doubt that Palin is trying to improve these numbers and her image overall with the release of her book. In fact, writing a book was tops on a to-do list Newt Gingrich penned for Palin back in August. There's already advice on how to get it right and many are eagerly anticipating the outcome.

Pundits and party loyalists will surely try to rush to a verdict on the book's effect on Palin's image. We'll track it empirically, reporting not on the voices of the few, but of the many. How the above numbers move over the next calendar year is certain to play a role in whether Palin takes a shot at the presidency for 2012. To make sure you're up to date, sign up to get our Election 2012 e-mail alerts and RSS feeds.


Paul Marsolek said...
November 23, 2009 at 8:50 PM  

This is a great perspective - Palin is interesting in that only in America can a virtually unknown politician from Alaska get center stage and a test run for the presidency. If she was not credible Gallup would not be polling her at all. If she brings anything to the table it is that she provides a voice for conservative women. I wonder more about what will happen in congress in 2010 though and how Palin will impact that?

Anonymous said...
November 29, 2009 at 4:53 AM  

Sarah Palin never was nor will she be the candidate in 2012. She has no intention of running as a republican or as an indepenedent for the Presidency.

The republicans have her out there for one reason and that is to keep the spotlight off Huckabee and Romney who will be the frontrunners for 2012 and probably the ticket.

As of right now neither Huckabee or romney have to say anything. Obama has self destructed all on his own and just wait to see his poll numbers tank after his "War of Necessity" speech Tuesday night when he escaltes the troop buildup by another 35,000 men and women at a cost of a million dollars a person.

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