The (Behavioral) Economics of Christmas

Here is the crazy thing about Christmas spending. We analyze and make predictions based on whatever indicators we can find -- what Americans tell us about their intentions, their views about the economy, retailers' plans, and the lessons of Christmas spending from seasons past. But since holiday shoppers are real people -- subject to impulse, worry, distraction, and (holiday) mood swings -- the cumulative total of their holiday receipts is ultimately subject to circumstance.

Here's what we know as of today, the Friday before the last shopping weekend for Christmas:

Retailers are said to be holding somewhat firm on prices, hoping last-minute shoppers will be willing to pay more than bargain basement prices.

Many shoppers are waiting until the last minute to shop -- either because they are hoping for bargains or because, for whatever reason, they haven't been in a rush to spend just yet.

Americans -- and especially upper-income Americans -- are giving us at Gallup more generous estimates of what they plan to spend than they did a month ago or in December of last year.

And then there's the swirl of winter weather heading up the East Coast, threatening to snow some shoppers in.

So, how much Americans spend this weekend is certainly anyone's guess. We'll have answers for you -- via our daily consumer spending measure -- next week, and every day here at Gallup.com.