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Friday, May 20, 2011

Key Findings From Our Post-Bin Laden Poll in Pakistan

We've now released three stories with findings from the survey we conducted in Pakistan in the week after the death of Osama bin Laden. Using the infrastructure from our global worldwide research, we were able to move quickly to survey 1,004 Pakistanis May 9-12, 2011, in both urban and rural areas across all four provinces in Pakistan. Pakistanis' responses reveal pride in their national sovereignty but also measurable skepticism about what Pakistan's intelligence and national government knew.

Here's a summary of some key findings:

  • 64% disapproved of the U.S. operation that resulted in the death of bin Laden, while 10% approved, 23% were still unaware of the incident, and 3% did not have an opinion.
  • 52% who were aware of the operation said bin Laden should have been captured, rather than killed, and 29% said he should have been neither captured nor killed.
  • 85% who were aware disapproved that it was carried out inside Pakistan without the government's knowledge.
  • 49% who were aware believed members of Pakistani intelligence did not know bin Laden's location, while a sizable 31% thought at least some members knew.
  • 65% who were aware said they did not believe the U.S. could have conducted the operation without the knowledge of the Pakistani government or intelligence services.
  • 64% who were aware said it made them have a more negative opinion of the U.S.
  • 79% who were aware said the U.S. should now withdraw from Afghanistan, while 14% said U.S. troops should stay in the country.
  • 85% of all Pakistanis disapproved of U.S. leadership, an all-time high since Gallup started measuring this; 10% approved.
You can find all of these stories and always stay up to date on Gallup's latest discoveries from its global polling by visiting and bookmarking our World News page. You can also sign up to receive World news by e-mail alert or RSS feed.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries Gallup continually surveys, please contact SocialandEconomicAnalysis@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

What You Need to Know About Gallup.com's Election 2012 Page

Guest post by Gallup.com Deputy Managing Editor Elizabeth Mendes

The next U.S. presidential election is more than a year away, but the race is already heating up. And while Democratic President Obama is set to run for a second term, the Republican Party's nominee is far from decided.

As GOP contenders continue to trickle into the official race and the key election issues begin to take shape, Gallup -- as in every U.S. presidential race since Roosevelt vs. Landon in 1936 -- will provide the most in-depth and ahead-of-the-curve data on the election available.

Expanding on this tradition, Gallup.com today launched its Election 2012 page, a one-stop-shop for all Gallup news and data on the presidential race.

At the new Gallup.com Election 2012 page you can:
  • Read Gallup's latest news articles on everything election-related
  • View and sort weekly data on GOP contenders' images, including recognition and Positive Intensity Scores
  • Export graphs and full trend data on GOP contenders
  • Get regular updates on GOP ballot support and the generic ballot for president
Gallup.com is a unique and powerful news source for Election 2012 coverage -- going beyond news about what is happening, and providing insights into what will happen by drawing on daily surveys of Americans.

Gallup's expert election team -- Frank Newport, Jeff Jones, and Lydia Saad -- are working on a lot more election tracking metrics and analyses, which will come out on Gallup.com in the weeks and months ahead.

To make sure you're always up to date, sign up to get our Election 2012 e-mail alerts and RSS feeds.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Top Findings Regarding Bin Laden's Death

Here's a quick rundown of Gallup's biggest findings this week, regarding the death of Osama bin Laden:

You can read more on the political impact of bin Laden's death from Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport in his blog, Polling Matters. He also discusses the findings in detail and in historical context in this Gallup news video and this week's Gallup News Minute.

To get alerted about future Gallup findings on this topic and other international news events, sign up to receive All Gallup Headlines via e-mail alert or RSS feed.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Obama Approval Watch Post-Bin Laden's Death

It will be fascinating to watch President Obama's job approval rating in the next few days, as Americans continue to react to the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. special forces. Our Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport discusses the historical context for a potential bounce in his blog Polling Matters.

Here's a quick rundown of what to monitor and when:

  • We update Obama's job approval rating daily on our homepage and here.  This number is a three-day rolling average, based on the previous three days of interviewing.  As of Sunday, 46% of Americans approved of Obama and 46% disapproved.  Monday's number, which we'll post at 1 p.m. ET, will include Sunday night interviewing, but that polling preceded the news about bin Laden, so it won't show any potential effect.
  • Monday night interviewing will begin to pick up Americans' reactions to bin Laden's death.  But Tuesday's number will still include interviewing both pre- and post-the bin Laden news, as will Wednesday's update.  Thursday's number is a key one to watch, as it will include three nights of interviewing -- Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday -- conducted after the bin Laden news.
  • Obama's weekly job approval average, posted in our Presidential Job Approval Center, may be the most valuable to watch.  Since we calculate weekly job approval averages every Monday, based on interviews conducted Monday to Sunday of the previous week, the number we post today will consist of polling conducted entirely pre-bin Laden's death. The number we post next Monday at 1 p.m. ET, will be entirely post-bin Laden's death.  As such, the comparison of those two numbers may be one of the best measures of how much the news impacts Obama's approval rating -- at least in the short term.
It will, of course, take much longer than days or weeks to fully measure the potential impact of the bin Laden development on the president's image -- be it in terms of his job approval rating, other issue ratings, or other perceptions of Obama as a leader.

We'll also be measuring and reporting on Americans' reactions to the news from other angles as well.

To make sure you are always up to date, sign up to receive All Gallup Headlines news via e-mail alert or RSS.

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