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Monday, November 28, 2011

Monitoring the Situation in Egypt

Gallup has been on top of the developments in Egypt, first documenting the decline in wellbeing that preceded the revolution, then to the optimism that followed it to the day-to-day challenges many Egyptians still face.

In fact, Gallup stepped up its surveying in Egypt in 2011, from annual to quarterly, to provide more frequent, empirical updates of the attitudes and behaviors on the ground.

With this scientific evidence, we were able to document that 84% of Egyptians think continued protests are a bad thing for the country and that 74% planned to vote in elections that 71% expected to be fair and honest.

Foreign Policy has also published some key highlights from our studies in Egypt.
 Exactly what will happen after the vote is hard to predict -- especially in terms of how politics and protests impact the average Egyptian.  But the data Gallup has collected so far shed light on where the country stands at the very crossroads of transition. 

The Abu Dhabi Gallup Center in June released an extensive report on Egyptians' attitudes before and after the revolution, providing a comprehensive picture of both the positive and negative signs.

Gallup will continue to survey Egyptians quarterly on their views on their political situation, their economy, their overall wellbeing, and more.

To stay up to date, sign up for our news alerts and select the topic "Egypt."

Monday, November 21, 2011

Fast Facts Regarding the 'Super' Disappointment

The failure of the U.S. debt supercommittee to reach an agreement on how to cut $1.2 trillion from the federal budget over the next 10 years makes each of these recent Gallup findings very newsworthy again:

  • Economic confidence declined during the debt ceiling debate in July and the budget showdown in April.  The same is likely after this disappointment. 
We're polling Americans tonight about their reactions to the inability of the supercommittee to reach a deal and will have their take in the next day or two on  Get that story -- and updates on all of the above -- as soon as they are published by signing up for our news alerts.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

U.S. Healthcare Series Begins Wednesday

In addition to our daily tracking of healthcare coverage rates in the U.S., Gallup also conducts an annual Health and Healthcare survey each November as part of the Gallup Social Series.

The timing is especially good this year, with the Supreme Court saying it will hear arguments on the constitutionality of the U.S. healthcare reform law passed in 2010 and all of the top GOP candidates seeking to repeal the law if they become president.

The survey provides an in-depth look of how Americans rate the U.S. healthcare system now, more than one and a half years after the passage of the Affordable Care Act, and as key provisions are still being phased in.

We'll release the key data in a four-part series between Wednesday and Friday:

  • Support for the Healthcare Law: Americans' views on whether the healthcare law should be kept in place or repealed, and how important it is that it happens. This story will also include an update on Americans' views on whether it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage or not. 
  • Perceptions of U.S. Healthcare System: How Americans rate the U.S. healthcare system in terms of quality and coverage, and their level of satisfaction with the cost of healthcare in the country. It will also reveal what Americans think is the most urgent health problem facing the country right now. 
  • Americans’ Satisfaction With Their Own Healthcare: Americans’ satisfaction with their own healthcare and healthcare coverage.
  • The Financial Burden of Healthcare Costs: Americans' satisfaction with their own healthcare costs, how their costs have changed in the past year, and how they pay their premiums.
The data are certain to become part of the national conversation as voters and politicians decide what to do next about healthcare. Sign up for alerts to be sure to get each story as soon as it is published.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Introducing Our New Swing States Tracking

Today we released the first story from our new "Swing States Tracking" -- a collaborative effort between Gallup and USA Today. We're taking advantage of the huge sample sizes enabled by our Gallup Daily tracking to report at least monthly, from now until the election, specifically on the views and preferences of registered voters within 12 key swing states.

Here's the big 12: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

In her analysis for USA Today, Susan Page describes how the states were selected:

"The states were chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterm elections and demographic trends. In the nation's unique voting system for president -- in which the outcome is based on the Electoral College rather than the popular vote -- the combined findings provide a snapshot of the election's direction. Other states and the District of Columbia clearly lean to one party or the other, and almost equally so: Obama starts with a likely 196 electoral votes from solidly Democratic states, the Republican nominee with 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House. Those calculations spotlight the dozen states in the middle that will command a disproportionate share of candidates' time, TV ads and grassroots organizing by campaigns and advocacy groups, trying to energize partisans and appeal to independents."

To be clear, we aren't reporting results for each state, but rather for the 12 states as a whole. As of now, swing state voters look similar to national voters in terms of whom they prefer in different general election scenarios, reflecting the fact that swing states are, by definition, the most balanced or “average” states in the union -- which is why they are so important in an election. But if the swing state voters begin to tip in either party’s favor, it will put that party in strong position to win the election.  To the extent the swing state voters remain divided in their preferences, it suggests the election will be highly competitive.  

Our continued "Swing States Tracking" will monitor how President Obama and the Republican candidates' campaigns play out in these crucial states as the next year unfolds. As Gallup's Jeffery M. Jones notes in his analysis,"with so much attention likely to be concentrated on voters in these 12 key swing states, they may be more susceptible to influence from the campaigns than voters in other states."

In addition to overall election preferences, we'll also monitor swing state voters’ views of the economy and other top issues. Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport reports on those attitudes in our second story in the series, which we'll release this afternoon.

To make sure you get every new story as soon as it is published, sign up to receive Gallup news alerts.

You can also monitor all of our coverage on the election on our Election 2012 page.

Daily tracking of the election is coming soon. Keep an eye on this blog or follow @gallupqueue on Twitter to be among the first to know!

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