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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

The 411 on Gallup's Likely Voter Numbers

Gallup's first "likely voters" results are out today, revealing a slight edge for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, 49% to 47%, among the registered voters most likely to cast ballots for president.

Here's what you need to know:

  • We will publish new numbers each day at 1 p.m. ET until the election in a variety of places on our website and via our mobile apps. We also post the numbers on Facebook and Twitter.
  • Our estimates reflect a seven-day rolling average, identical to our registered voter figures, which we will also continue to report.
  • We will publish a story every Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET going forward, analyzing the likely voter data for the week prior. We will also publish stories whenever we see something noteworthy in the data.
  • We determine likely voters based on voters’ responses to a seven-question series that -- with some revisions along the way -- Gallup has used to calculate voters’ likelihood of voting since 1952.  
You can get each new story as soon as it is published by signing up for news alerts. You can also get additional insights and analysis from our election experts and Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport in his blog Polling Matters.

Thanks for following the election with Gallup! We're tracking the shifts in the race you need to know every day.


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